You may not want to read this if you're living in a part of the country that is suffering from drought and intense heat, because this post is about rain. And plenty of it.
I took the photo a few days ago, after the dog dish had collected the previous night's rainfall -- two inches. We feed blind Jake his dinner outside in his yard because he often needs to, um, "use the facilities" right after eating. After bringing him in for the night, I forgot to pick up his dish until the following morning. I was no longer surprised to see how much rain we got all at once -- these heavy downpours seem to be more and more common. You can see in the photo that the raindrops hit the ground so hard they splattered dirt off the ground and into the dish.
Of course, it's not just us, or our imagination. Extreme precipitation events have become much more common in the past 50 years. And a new study just released today, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and The Increase in Extreme Precipitation from 1948-2011, shows that New England is well ahead of the rest of the country in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, up 85% between 1948 and 2011. The next highest region is the Middle Atlantic states at 55%. And in New England, it's New Hampshire that has seen the most frequent extreme events -- up a whopping 115%. Next highest is Rhode Island at 90%. (The summary is here and the full study, including state and regional tables, is here.)
Another study, Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events for the Northeastern United States 1948-2007, was published by the University of New Hampshire in 2010 and also showed a significant increase in these events. That study, available here, said that historically, a two-inch rainfall could be expected to occur about two times each year in the Northeast. (Bear in mind that there are different ways to define "extreme precipitation" and degrees of "extreme," such as two-inch, four-inch and six-inch precipitation events.) I haven't counted how many two-inch events we've had already this year, but we are way over two!
Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's a related graphic from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
(Click on the graphic for a larger version.)
The methodology and timeframe behind that chart may be different from the other studies, but the results are still pretty dramatic.
The challenge for us is learning how to grow crops on naturally damp soil -- the farm is dotted with springs, and both of our wells are spring-fed -- when rain is increasingly coming down in torrents. Indeed, the morning after the storm that left 2 inches of rain in Jake's dish, we had another torrential downpour. I wish I had left a dish out to capture that rainfall, but it was so heavy I'd be surprised if it hadn't been close to 2 inches itself.
It's not just extreme precipitation that we will be learning to cope with as a result of climate change, of course, but more extreme weather events in general, as a recent study in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society explained.
The best "visual" on extreme weather is this next chart from Munich Re, the giant insurance company that is a global re-insurer (i.e., they insure other insurance companies, like State Farm, for major losses). Because much of their business is based on assessing risk from major weather events, Munich Re has collected this kind of data for years:
(Click on the graphic for a larger version.)
You can see the trend line is going only one way -- up. This matters to Munich Re, and by extension to their insurance company customers, because their rates for reinsurance are driven by the likelihood of these risks occurring.
Now, I'd rather have to deal with extreme precipitation events than extreme drought and heat. Alayne's father is in Wichita, Kansas, where it is forecast to hit 110° today and tomorrow, cooling off to 109° on Thursday, and back up to 111° on Friday. I can't imagine. What's a two-inch rainfall compared to that?
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I do believe you've invented the dog bowl rain gauge! That rain photo is a welcome sight in this dry area. Thanks for the picture.
I do not believe in manmade global warming or manmade climate change. I believe in cycles in nature which are so long and slow that humans can jump to erroneous conclusions. I also believe that some people are less than forthcoming in disclosing all the information available, and that this can happen on both sides of a controversy.
Posted by: Moon Rani | August 04, 2012 at 01:20 PM
Like most of the midwest we are experiencing a hot and humid summer with very little rain. Our winter last year was so mild with very little snow and much warmer than usual. For all those people out there that feel global warming isn't happening they should really start to take a closer look at changes happening all over the U.S. When I looked at the charts you included in your blog frankly it scares me. We all need to start making changes to help the planet. If we don't I hate to think what things will be like in 10 years time.
Posted by: Betsy | August 02, 2012 at 09:28 AM
Upon reading about extremem weather thru out the nation, I feel fortunate to live in the moderate PNW climate.
Posted by: Ev | August 01, 2012 at 08:47 PM
Here in Kansas City, we are expected to hit our 22nd day of triple-digit heat this summer (5 days would be "normal")and we are down over 15 inches of precip after a very mild winter and extremely dry spring and summer. The grass is brown and dead, the trees look pathetic and many have already shed their leaves. It is so sad to see. I just got back from a trip to Ireland where everything was green, cool, and lush with flowers in bloom everywhere but they told me they are having TOO MUCH rain as well and that crops are suffering because of it. Still, I am thinking retirement in New England is sounding pretty good about now........
Posted by: Marla from KC | August 01, 2012 at 11:30 AM
All your good research and data references and nowhere a mention of a rainfall guage! Bah! Who needs one when a good dog dish is handy?
Posted by: Celia Brown | August 01, 2012 at 10:55 AM
Thanks for the interesting info. I was wondering how it was going to relate to the Farm. That Munich Re graph is rather telling. It's so much easier to realize what's happening when you can see it presented like that. It paints a rather scary picture. Let's hope our neighbors across the country get the rain they need; it affects everyone, the animals too.
Posted by: Barb Ribinski | August 01, 2012 at 09:13 AM
My state of South Carolina is still considered in a drought but we've been having some really severe thunderstorms and heavy rains here just about every day. Some days it's similar to the couple of inches that you got. It's not an all day event, but generally in the late afternoon and can last anywhere from a few minutes to a couple of hours. The big thing here is the severity and the massive amounts of lightning strikes.
2 of my dogs don't mind the thunder, but my other one is terrified. I have to use both the Thundershirt and a tranquilizer and keep him right next to me. I can't wait till this severe weather passes.
Posted by: Ann | August 01, 2012 at 04:22 AM
We would sure like to take some of that rain off your hands!
We too, have had 110, and it's staying that way for another week.
A happy middle for all would be great! I imagine it's tough getting your work done in all that rain.
Posted by: Glenda | August 01, 2012 at 04:22 AM
Well, there's always rice if things get real bad.
You know, I couldn't recall Jake. Thank goodness for your search. I can't believe that it was 2008 when he and Buddy arrived. Time sure flies........
Posted by: Lynn (in Louisiana) | July 31, 2012 at 09:51 PM
Thanks for sharing that fascinating info.
And for anyone keeping track of who still doesn't believe something is going on out there, an article today (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/30/richard-muller-global-warming_n_1066029.html) reveals that Richard Muller now believes there is global warming.
Posted by: Janet in Cambridge | July 31, 2012 at 07:45 PM